{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0.0",
  "endpoint": "methodology",
  "generatedAt": "2026-07-23T12:11:00Z",
  "version": "2026.07",
  "sections": [
    {
      "id": "climate-weather-forecast",
      "title": "Climate, weather, and forecast",
      "body": "Climate is the slow-moving baseline (share over months). Weather is today’s condition. Forecast is what we expect next, with a probability and an impact."
    },
    {
      "id": "search-referral",
      "title": "Search referral share",
      "body": "The share of identifiable search-engine referral visits sent to websites. It is a referral measurement, not total query volume."
    },
    {
      "id": "ai-referral",
      "title": "AI chatbot referral share",
      "body": "Identifiable visits sent from AI assistants to websites. It does not measure every AI interaction or total platform usage."
    },
    {
      "id": "separation",
      "title": "Why unlike platforms are separated",
      "body": "Search engines and AI assistants are measured differently. We never combine them into one chart or one number."
    },
    {
      "id": "warming-cooling",
      "title": "Warming and cooling",
      "body": "Direction over one, three, and twelve months. Warming means gaining share; cooling means losing it; stable is within noise."
    },
    {
      "id": "probability",
      "title": "Probability",
      "body": "A calibrated likelihood a forecast condition occurs in its window, from scheduled events, observed signals, and modeled analogs to prior fronts."
    },
    {
      "id": "impact",
      "title": "Impact",
      "body": "Expected marketer consequence: Low, Moderate, or High. Impact is independent of probability."
    },
    {
      "id": "conditions",
      "title": "How conditions are assigned",
      "body": "A fixed vocabulary (Stable through New normal) mapped from current signals so the same inputs always produce the same condition."
    },
    {
      "id": "decisions",
      "title": "How marketer decisions are assigned",
      "body": "Each condition maps to one recommended decision, from No action to Act. Calm conditions map to No action by default."
    },
    {
      "id": "grading",
      "title": "How forecasts are graded",
      "body": "After a window closes, each forecast is graded correct, directionally correct, too early, overstated, missed, or inconclusive. Grades are never deleted."
    },
    {
      "id": "stale",
      "title": "How stale data is handled",
      "body": "If a source has not refreshed within its expected cadence, the report is marked stale and the last verified time is shown. Stale data is never presented as current."
    },
    {
      "id": "cannot-know",
      "title": "What this product cannot know",
      "body": "Private ranking systems, unannounced releases, and individual business results. AIOWeather reports the market climate, not your business. AIOInsights evaluates the business."
    },
    {
      "id": "beta",
      "title": "BETA limitations",
      "body": "Source coverage is expanding, forecast rules may be refined, and some regions have partial coverage. Every forecast remains archived and graded."
    }
  ]
}